Tuesday, 25 February
GROUCHO'S DUCK: I suppose it was inevitable that guys who are in the habit of betting on football games would start betting pools on Iraq invasion dates. Via Buzz Machine we learn that there are several of these pools now. Fortune Magazine, of all places, has an article about it. And that doesn't even take into account the Brits who are famous for their bookies and odds makers. Or maybe it only seems inevitable because Sports Illustrated has just distributed their annual Swimsuit Issue. But I don't think the Pentagon is going to go by a standard formula.
Currently, General Franks sends out regular bombing sorties and then announces publicly on his website what was hit along with the details. They have been bombing missile launcher accoutrements and cable relays and such over the Southern No-Fly Zone. It seems strange but no matter how many times General Franks bombs this stuff, the Iraqis persist in moving more prohibited materials in this zone. You would think that after a few times they would learn that they can't succeed in this, but they keep doing it.
I'm no military expert by any means, but here's what I think is going to happen. When you drive an airplane or a car and you're out tooling around, it doesn't take much to hook a left. One of these days (sooner rather than later) while they're out on one of these sorties, General Franks is going to tell them to hook a left, and they're going to demolish those prohibited Samoud misiles. Then if the Iraqis are foolish enough to respond, the Pentagon will react with full, devastating force, while probably using the Samoud incident as a diversion away from the rest of their entrance into the theater of engagement.
The way most of the guys seem to be calculating, they're going by the book according to a pretty standard formula with their bets. But we know that the military is loathe to relinquish the element of surprise, so I don't think they're going to approach this project the way they've done it a couple of times before. The guys who are expecting to see the cable TV studs talking on the roof doing a standup during the 6:30 pm news when tracers start to fly and big booms start sounding off in the background, I think are going to be disappointed.
But that's just my humble opinion.